Having read (and in some cases shamelessly stolen from) the post-election analysis of the other pundits in our corner of the blogosphere, I'm ready with my own comments on Tuesday's results.
Portland voters decided that incumbency -- more properly, identification with the wing of the crypto-Democratic party that has been in charge of Portland since 1973 -- is a disadvantage. Sam Adams finished well behind Nicholas Fish. Adams is a City Hall insider and protege of Mayor Katz; Fish is a moderate Democrat who follows at least four generations of Republicans and is a newcomer to Oregon. Jim Francesconi finished well behind Tom Potter. Francesconi is a sitting councilor; Potter was last in public life 10 years ago as Portland's police chief. (And Francesconi finished second despite outspending Potter 14 to 1.) Randy Leonard alone avoided a runoff, but many of his opponents are part of the unelected political establishment; Leonard established himself as the only outsider on the council.
Over at Multnomah County, Maria Rojo de Steffey and Lisa Naito turned in unimpressive numbers against weak opposition, with Naito forced into a runoff in November. (I'm taking this on trust from other reports; as I live half a mile outside Multnomah County, the Oregonian's bizarre system of regional editions means that my edition of the Oregonian doesn't report the Multnomah County Commission races. It does, however, tell me that Leslie Lewis defeated Mike Sullivan for Yamhill County Commission seat no. 2, 25 miles away from Laquedem McManor.)
Anti-incumbent votes kept Supreme Court Justices Rives Kistler (61%) and William Riggs (65%) below where they should have been, considering that their opponents were political and legal unknowns who ran very modest campaigns.
The anti-incumbent slant took a toll in the suburbs. Clackamas County voters evicted Sheriff Pat Detloff, and Republicans ousted incumbent Bill Yount (who had been appointed midterm) from House District 35.
Republicans generally preferred Church Street to Main Street, and Main Street to Wall Street. They chose Betsy Close (Church Street) over Fred Granum (solidly Wall Street) to run against Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. They chose Goli Ameri (Main Street) over Tim Phillips (Wall Street) in the 1st District. In the 5th District, they chose Jim Zupancic (Wall Street, but running as an anti-tax Main Street) over state legislator Jackie Winters (no known Street).
Early predictions for the fall: Bill Bradbury will easily defeat Betsy Close for Secretary of State. David Wu will defeat Goli Ameri in a squeaker. Darlene Hooley will defeat Jim Zupancic in the 5th District by about 5 points. Lisa Naito will be reelected to the Multnomah County Commission by a wide margin. Nick Fish will defeat Sam Adams by 12 points.
And the big one, Potter and Francesconi? Flip a coin, a coin that no longer has a million dollars on one side of it. But I will predict that Tom Potter's mailbox is about to burst with unsolicited $100 checks from people whose names have shown up on Francesconi's contribution list.
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